Evaluation of ESBL resistance dynamics in <i>Escherichia coli</i> isolates by mathematical modeling

Abstract Antibiotic resistance is becoming one of the threats to global health. This crisis has been attributed over-the-counter and overuse antibiotics leading bacteria gain ability resist survive even in presence antimicrobial agents. Escherichia coli ( E. ) major gram-negative that are representative indicators antibiotic resistance. One mechanisms gaining production extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL). In this study, Near East University Hospital data from 2016 2019 were used study dynamics ESBL-producing ESBL + {\text{ESBL}}^{+} non-ESBL-producing − {\text{ESBL}}^{-} infections by using a mathematical model. our aim was evaluate distribution caused resistant strains later years increase success treatment patients infected with reducing problem By model patients, basic reproduction number R 0 values calculated epidemiologic disease. The R 0 E {R}_{0}^{{E}^{-}} {R}_{0}^{{E}^{+}} for ESBL {\text{&amp;#x00A0;ESBL}}^{+}\text{&amp;#x00A0;} calculated, respectively. According within it be 1,266,403 2,096,747. Since equal or greater than 1, suggests currently \hspace{.25em}{\text{ESBL}}^{-} epidemic character Cyprus. Furthermore, when simulation analyses carried out model, predicted 2042 {\text{&amp;#x00A0;ESBL}}^{+} infection trends will equalize. After 2042, {\text{ESBL}}^{-}\text{&amp;#x00A0;} indicate descending pattern whereas constantly.